The two Sudans....Economist.com | KHARTOUM !!!!

Africa
The two Sudans
Let’s sign again
Jan 10th 2013, 17:11 by Economist.com | KHARTOUM

UNDER the guidance of the African Union, the presidents of the two Sudans, meeting in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, have again signed an agreement that is supposed to secure peace between adversaries who have spent most of the past three decades at war. Perhaps the reason for the awkward smiles was that there was nothing new in the latest accord. It was a renewed commitment to abide by the terms of a deal already signed in September. Since then, no progress has been made to implement it. Second time lucky?
The deal between the old mother country in the north and its 18-month-old infant neighbour that was granted independence as South Sudan in 2011 has been snagged mainly by a row over a demilitarised buffer zone between the two. That idea proved unpopular among some generals in the South, who had previously been guerrilla leaders in the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA). They have remained loyal to their old comrades north of the border in the province of South Kordofan, who were once part of the SPLA but have continued to fight against President Omar al-Bashir’s regime in Sudan under a new name, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)-North. The government in Juba, South Sudan’s capital, officially deny any link with these rebels. But if it is made to respect a buffer zone, the rebels in the north would be cut off completely from supplies and might well be vanquished.
That is plainly what the government of the rump state of Sudan in Khartoum wants. Moreover, the SPLM-North is in alliance with rebels in the western region of Darfur under the umbrella of the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), which has just signed a “New Dawn” charter with some Khartoum-based opposition parties with the joint aim of toppling Mr Bashir’s regime. But Sudan’s opposition, both armed and unarmed, is notoriously weak and disorganised. “Believe me, the government does not spend time worrying about the SRF,” says a government man in Khartoum, dismissing it as an “interest group”.
Mr Bashir was probably more rattled in November, when a group of Islamists were accused of plotting a coup. But this lot, which included a former intelligence chief and a popular general, were jailed pending a trial, before anything could have got off the ground.
In any event, Mr Bashir may have the upper hand in the latest round of talks between north and south. His counterpart, President Salva Kiir of South Sudan, says his government has severed ties with the rebels over the border. He needs Mr Bashir to believe him. Unless this rebel link is cut, Sudan’s government will not let oil from South Sudan flow again through northern pipelines to the Red Sea. A year ago the government in Juba turned off the South’s entire oil production in a row over transit fees. Oil is virtually its only source of income, making up 98% of revenue.
Though quelling the border rebellion is the Sudanese government’s priority, it also needs the income from oil transit fees to tackle inflation and to steady the north’s shaky economy. But the southerners are even more desperate. With virtually no income during the past year, inflation has raced. The southern government is struggling to pay teachers, the police and—most dangerously—the army. In October, Mr Kiir warned his officers against plotting a coup after rumours circulated that one had already been tried. If he cuts off his old friends to the north, his generals may seek to unseat him. But if he does not, Mr Bashir may make the most of being able to strangle South Sudan’s economy. For Mr Kiir it is a horrible choice.