Sudan .. Find leader, load-Bashir «paralyzed and isolated past failures and submit 'scapegoat' possibility.
Khartoum ripple of rumors and scenarios on the way out of the tunnel 'rescue' the dark
11-16-2012 05:48 AM
Khartoum: Ahmed Younis
Lived the Sudanese capital Khartoum recent days and weeks which put her hand on her heart, as well as did other cities and towns in the country, fearing to hear music and Almarchat military, to declare on television or radio Omdurman for a military coup again, perhaps restores the situation to the first point, which has been the country then nearly a quarter of a century ago, long ruled by President Omar al-Bashir and Sudanese Islamists, or to a new square darker than it is now.
Not a military coup alone what was worrying the Sudanese, there are other possibilities promotes, such as a 'palace coup' Edberh participants to President al-Bashir in power, leading to his deportation and handing the presidency to another, as one of the options that popped up on the surface of events finally and forcefully.
And stoked fire «rumors» and press reports conflicting in recent days, as well as official statements, which denies, then confirms, then back later for all what she said, about the health status of President al-Bashir, and the reason for his trip sudden, to Saudi Arabia first week of November (November) Current , for treatment of 'mystery illness' go his voice .. And turned it into a «silent head.
And re-raise the issue, originally raised, between opposition politicians and the general public and strongly: «a successor to President Bashir in the event of its inability to conduct state functions due to illness ..? .. All pointing to the alternative 'possible' or alternative wishes.
Not only did the opposition, but Sur entered the National Congress Party of President Bashir, who spread inside and even went out to the public 'talk' about the alternative, and even hints to people replacements. And exploited the media in prose agendas Tamah parties within the system, in different ways, where scatter every point agenda and launches 'balloon test' to see the public reaction and toward official broadcasts of 'tests'. Some of these balloons focused on «the President is unable» for managing state affairs because of illness, and almost his trip to Saudi Arabia for hospitalization trip former President Jaafar Nimeiri to the United States for hospitalization, and no longer then president of Sudan, as toppled his regime uprising March - April ( April) 1985, the People.
Others within the ruling party by source spoke «Middle East» raised the issue of «high cost» the presence of President Bashir came to power because of the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court, and the transformation because of the President «paralyzed and isolated», and caused continuance in power of losses the ruling Islamist allies, because his downfall may be the end for all of them, and therefore it is 'reasonable' to look for an alternative president, and download all the previous failures to Bashir and surrender 'scapegoat'.
Came «PLAGUE» air raid on the factory Yarmouk military, which accused the government of Israel, to increase «clay failure worse», where it proved the system fails to address military air strikes, if only for the launch bursts of anti-aircraft for propaganda and say «We are here» ! .. But floundering officials to explain to people terrified and frightened, and some of them returned to «fire in the grass near the place, and others Erdjaoha in early statements to 'spark' resulting from« welding operations shortly after midnight.
Even when government directed indictment of Israel explicitly, and said that its planes bombed the factory, the amazing and ironic on the state association reached the system, that the head of the diplomatic Sudanese Minister Ali Karti went to the people after almost a week to say that Khartoum does not even know the moment what bombed, making political analysts say the strike «broken» back system, and were a blow to violent to his ego and reservoir claims, and to his army and hardware security that exchange by nearly 70 per cent of budget revenue days petroleum, and revealed that exchange large military went to internal wars, and this is what revealed Information Minister Ahmed Bilal famous in the press conference, when they tried to deny the accusations of arming fighters of the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas .. The minister said, perhaps inadvertently «The factory produces weapons for internal use ..! On the other side of the scene, embarked opposition forces to accelerate their alternatives to the regime of President Bashir, amid warning of the collapse of the state in conditions of instability that, and the situation fluid which under experienced system after the secession of southern Sudan, economic collapse, and the crisis living grinding that led to grumbling broad popular .
And accelerated the opposition Labor remote re raising the issue «alternative President», as hurried opponents to sign a joint statement between the leader of the Umma Party Sadiq al-Mahdi, and the Popular Congress Party, led by Dr.. Ali Hajj, and the SPLM in the north led by Yasir Arman, advertisers a new alliance to overthrow the regime through « sit-ins in different areas of the country for the manufacture of 'spring Sudanese'.
The Single «President Alternative» was put strongly after revolutions Arab Spring, and the mass protests in the months of June and July last two, which shook the regime shake, but «suppressed» violently and brutality, when President Bashir for his unwillingness to stand for a new presidential cycle end of his cycle, which ends in 2015, but opponents of the regime promised this statement to try to wrap to prevent the transmission of revolutions of the Arab Spring to Sudan.
The search for a replacement, the Islamists who have been governing with President al-Bashir over the years, they began to arrange paced again, not even ridden 'coming down' their suddenly, Vtakrjhm system by the Department of the act in the country and forever.
The grumbling cases began to appear amid youth blocs, and Islamist currents are not involved in the machinery of government directly, or are excluded, and groups of fighters former jihadists days of the war with southern Sudan.
Evolution of this movement to reach for something like a b «rebel» within organizations of young people, was forced because of President Bashir to withstand criticism acclaimed for the way his reign, and even to make promises a «radical changes» in the crew's ruling and methods of governance, etc. The silent «Psalms grumble», even back « Halima to old habits, not the President promises a change in the rule.
Internal bloc emerged presented a memorandum famous known note 'brother millennium', a reference to the «alpha of the Muslim Brotherhood may have signed, and demanded change policies and approaches and the characters in power.
Then sustained movements former mujahideen war in the south, and was dubbed them «Aldbabin», a metaphor for their ability to destroy enemy tanks south, in the last Ramadan and the Declaration initiative «tourists» requesting the same demands, but the outcomes were zero.
And entered the Islamic Movement inherit the power struggle, which is al-gelatinous was re-established after the dissolution former leader d. Hassan al-Turabi, and gave him two copies of the Koran, and asked them to go home because Islam Movement became a state, and National Congress party which should melt inside.
The re-establishment of «Islamic Movement» again, did not register as a body has legal existence within organizations of civil and political force in the country, just body based on power, neither political party is governed by the laws of registration of political parties, nor is it a civil society organization, governed by the laws of association and voluntary organizations , which can hardly Chairman Houraha Ibrahim Ahmed Omar Reply journalists but organization called the Islamic Movement.
And raised the body's New Some P «Thssoa pistols», and split supporters system around him, فالمجموعة loyal to President Bashir in the military especially stood at first on the fence, but they gradually began to take positions adverse, as endorsed strongly civic groups wrapped around the First Vice-President Al-Bashir, Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, and so turned to conflict between the tool 'camps' crew ruling.
However, the conflict within a shift in recent conflict «hit below the belt to open conflict, especially on the Constitution, who spent denying its secretary-general« Ali Osman Taha, and Chairman of the Board Houraha «Ibrahim Ahmed Omar from running for another session. Analysts believe that the current constitutional amendment which the intervention of the Islamic movement its current conference, made hands aimed to reduce the powers of the Islamist strongman greedy in the presidential succession.
And last week, during the absence of Bashir for treatment, spread rumors uncertain in Khartoum that Taha arranged conditions in his favor, and he held meetings with supporters of the Islamist military and civilian, to arrange the transfer of power, but observers رجحوا to stop «the return of President» of نقاهته that's Alajulh These moves, and possibly go through the order in which they were راجحا before.
Despite everything, the state of health of President Bashir, and surgical operations conducted by successively in each of the Qatari capital Doha, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the silence imposed by the disease and doctors it, and blow Yarmouk, and military operations escalating in the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and exit zones ability of those states The fall in the hands of warriors «People's Army in the north, as well as increased Coker war 'forgotten' in Darfur, are all factors that observers confirm that the regime of President al-Bashir reached the stage of 'no return' .. If added to the economic collapse horrible caused by the exit Petroleum southern Sudan from the budget provision in Khartoum, and the failure of Khartoum and Juba - until the moment - to agree on pumping oil in the oil pipelines North and failing to calm border disputes, especially the conflict zone «Abyei» , and the possibility of a third war in which, the statement that the crisis regime of President Bashir became «structural» is not a word lump, especially if read it with UN Security Council Resolution (2046) to impose a settlement between the north and south disputed issues, and if the intransigence of one of the parties the international organization to take responsibility «under Chapter VII of the Charter, and is likely to receive international Khartoum weight of the stick on her back.
Thus be governance crisis has come home to roost, or so reported the Secretary's political opposition Popular Congress Party, Kamal Omar trying to explain Malate and conflicts of power and governance in Sudan, where he says «talk about moderation president's health just talk political, because his health is deteriorating, and therefore can not manage stage coming as he did in the past.
Omar believes that there is a 'three work streams within the ruling party, and the dispute over the succession Bashir, a the المستقطبين Movement, and they entered the party after he seized power, and a second stream led by first deputy Ali Osman. Omar adds that this trend took advantage of the absence of the President hospitals to enhance its influence.
However, the Islamic researcher and journalist Abdul Ghani Ahmad Idris, author of the book «Islamists .. Vision and leadership crisis, ruled in Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat that Osman has managed to bring the relationship between him and the military commanders, in the brief period Gabha President of the country for treatment. The «may Ali Osman relationship old Forty years with the military, but affected the signing of the Naivasha Agreement, which holds the Sudanese army claimed responsibility and the responsibility of secession of the south, so the relationship between men and army unpaved enough to return in such few days».
This was confirmed by commanders without equivocation, but quoted by armed forces army spokeswoman earlier when he wrote editor-in-chief for the role of «Naivasha and they made the secession of the south and weaken the army, which reveals the spacing between the military and Taha.
Explains Omar that the current third represented the military who belongs to them Bashir, however, indicates that the stream Ali Osman accepted within the military, and is likely to devolve things to him because of this acceptance, as he says it «Idris» It stream متحلق about President component of «Minister Defense Major General Abdel Rahim Mohamed Hussein, and Electricity Minister Osama Abdullah, and others, and they are no real alternative, they offer to the President, and even believe that their continued survival is not only linked.
According to Omar, the president Bashir himself looking for «Khalifa» saves him a secure future and a guarantee of prosecutions Criminal Court, but he does not see on the horizon that would be acceptable and able to manage the situation in the country, including more shares «Taha», underlines the weakness stream military entourage President Idris said.
He Idris he sees in the view of the polar-Mahdi in his testimony told «Middle East» later, that changing the president calls change every cab leadership have ruled, including First Deputy Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, it represents viewpoint insight might return to the movement Islamic luster lost. Abdul Ghani adds Idris «I expect the emergence of new Islamic leaders, return of the Islamic Movement lost Mvcodadtha due to political and military failure, which required the ruling group, and surprise the conflicting inheriting including President did not expect.
According to Islamic leadership refused to reveal his name, the new Islamic leaders will emerge from the current crisis, and he mentioned the names may be unknown, such as the payment of Allah Hussein, Osama Aidroos, and some of their colleagues.
With all of these analyzes and predictions, remains finally to conflict presidency in Sudan began, and scenarios ranging from internal change in the system, and a popular uprising restore democracy to the country, and «solution broker» negotiated, while overlooking the specter of «state collapse» though on the face of shy and cryptic. . The days will reveal «Conference now underway trajectory of events, though analysts do not rely too much, also reveal how true or false health reports traded on the president.
Middle East
Khartoum ripple of rumors and scenarios on the way out of the tunnel 'rescue' the dark
11-16-2012 05:48 AM
Khartoum: Ahmed Younis
Lived the Sudanese capital Khartoum recent days and weeks which put her hand on her heart, as well as did other cities and towns in the country, fearing to hear music and Almarchat military, to declare on television or radio Omdurman for a military coup again, perhaps restores the situation to the first point, which has been the country then nearly a quarter of a century ago, long ruled by President Omar al-Bashir and Sudanese Islamists, or to a new square darker than it is now.
Not a military coup alone what was worrying the Sudanese, there are other possibilities promotes, such as a 'palace coup' Edberh participants to President al-Bashir in power, leading to his deportation and handing the presidency to another, as one of the options that popped up on the surface of events finally and forcefully.
And stoked fire «rumors» and press reports conflicting in recent days, as well as official statements, which denies, then confirms, then back later for all what she said, about the health status of President al-Bashir, and the reason for his trip sudden, to Saudi Arabia first week of November (November) Current , for treatment of 'mystery illness' go his voice .. And turned it into a «silent head.
And re-raise the issue, originally raised, between opposition politicians and the general public and strongly: «a successor to President Bashir in the event of its inability to conduct state functions due to illness ..? .. All pointing to the alternative 'possible' or alternative wishes.
Not only did the opposition, but Sur entered the National Congress Party of President Bashir, who spread inside and even went out to the public 'talk' about the alternative, and even hints to people replacements. And exploited the media in prose agendas Tamah parties within the system, in different ways, where scatter every point agenda and launches 'balloon test' to see the public reaction and toward official broadcasts of 'tests'. Some of these balloons focused on «the President is unable» for managing state affairs because of illness, and almost his trip to Saudi Arabia for hospitalization trip former President Jaafar Nimeiri to the United States for hospitalization, and no longer then president of Sudan, as toppled his regime uprising March - April ( April) 1985, the People.
Others within the ruling party by source spoke «Middle East» raised the issue of «high cost» the presence of President Bashir came to power because of the arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court, and the transformation because of the President «paralyzed and isolated», and caused continuance in power of losses the ruling Islamist allies, because his downfall may be the end for all of them, and therefore it is 'reasonable' to look for an alternative president, and download all the previous failures to Bashir and surrender 'scapegoat'.
Came «PLAGUE» air raid on the factory Yarmouk military, which accused the government of Israel, to increase «clay failure worse», where it proved the system fails to address military air strikes, if only for the launch bursts of anti-aircraft for propaganda and say «We are here» ! .. But floundering officials to explain to people terrified and frightened, and some of them returned to «fire in the grass near the place, and others Erdjaoha in early statements to 'spark' resulting from« welding operations shortly after midnight.
Even when government directed indictment of Israel explicitly, and said that its planes bombed the factory, the amazing and ironic on the state association reached the system, that the head of the diplomatic Sudanese Minister Ali Karti went to the people after almost a week to say that Khartoum does not even know the moment what bombed, making political analysts say the strike «broken» back system, and were a blow to violent to his ego and reservoir claims, and to his army and hardware security that exchange by nearly 70 per cent of budget revenue days petroleum, and revealed that exchange large military went to internal wars, and this is what revealed Information Minister Ahmed Bilal famous in the press conference, when they tried to deny the accusations of arming fighters of the Islamic Resistance Movement Hamas .. The minister said, perhaps inadvertently «The factory produces weapons for internal use ..! On the other side of the scene, embarked opposition forces to accelerate their alternatives to the regime of President Bashir, amid warning of the collapse of the state in conditions of instability that, and the situation fluid which under experienced system after the secession of southern Sudan, economic collapse, and the crisis living grinding that led to grumbling broad popular .
And accelerated the opposition Labor remote re raising the issue «alternative President», as hurried opponents to sign a joint statement between the leader of the Umma Party Sadiq al-Mahdi, and the Popular Congress Party, led by Dr.. Ali Hajj, and the SPLM in the north led by Yasir Arman, advertisers a new alliance to overthrow the regime through « sit-ins in different areas of the country for the manufacture of 'spring Sudanese'.
The Single «President Alternative» was put strongly after revolutions Arab Spring, and the mass protests in the months of June and July last two, which shook the regime shake, but «suppressed» violently and brutality, when President Bashir for his unwillingness to stand for a new presidential cycle end of his cycle, which ends in 2015, but opponents of the regime promised this statement to try to wrap to prevent the transmission of revolutions of the Arab Spring to Sudan.
The search for a replacement, the Islamists who have been governing with President al-Bashir over the years, they began to arrange paced again, not even ridden 'coming down' their suddenly, Vtakrjhm system by the Department of the act in the country and forever.
The grumbling cases began to appear amid youth blocs, and Islamist currents are not involved in the machinery of government directly, or are excluded, and groups of fighters former jihadists days of the war with southern Sudan.
Evolution of this movement to reach for something like a b «rebel» within organizations of young people, was forced because of President Bashir to withstand criticism acclaimed for the way his reign, and even to make promises a «radical changes» in the crew's ruling and methods of governance, etc. The silent «Psalms grumble», even back « Halima to old habits, not the President promises a change in the rule.
Internal bloc emerged presented a memorandum famous known note 'brother millennium', a reference to the «alpha of the Muslim Brotherhood may have signed, and demanded change policies and approaches and the characters in power.
Then sustained movements former mujahideen war in the south, and was dubbed them «Aldbabin», a metaphor for their ability to destroy enemy tanks south, in the last Ramadan and the Declaration initiative «tourists» requesting the same demands, but the outcomes were zero.
And entered the Islamic Movement inherit the power struggle, which is al-gelatinous was re-established after the dissolution former leader d. Hassan al-Turabi, and gave him two copies of the Koran, and asked them to go home because Islam Movement became a state, and National Congress party which should melt inside.
The re-establishment of «Islamic Movement» again, did not register as a body has legal existence within organizations of civil and political force in the country, just body based on power, neither political party is governed by the laws of registration of political parties, nor is it a civil society organization, governed by the laws of association and voluntary organizations , which can hardly Chairman Houraha Ibrahim Ahmed Omar Reply journalists but organization called the Islamic Movement.
And raised the body's New Some P «Thssoa pistols», and split supporters system around him, فالمجموعة loyal to President Bashir in the military especially stood at first on the fence, but they gradually began to take positions adverse, as endorsed strongly civic groups wrapped around the First Vice-President Al-Bashir, Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, and so turned to conflict between the tool 'camps' crew ruling.
However, the conflict within a shift in recent conflict «hit below the belt to open conflict, especially on the Constitution, who spent denying its secretary-general« Ali Osman Taha, and Chairman of the Board Houraha «Ibrahim Ahmed Omar from running for another session. Analysts believe that the current constitutional amendment which the intervention of the Islamic movement its current conference, made hands aimed to reduce the powers of the Islamist strongman greedy in the presidential succession.
And last week, during the absence of Bashir for treatment, spread rumors uncertain in Khartoum that Taha arranged conditions in his favor, and he held meetings with supporters of the Islamist military and civilian, to arrange the transfer of power, but observers رجحوا to stop «the return of President» of نقاهته that's Alajulh These moves, and possibly go through the order in which they were راجحا before.
Despite everything, the state of health of President Bashir, and surgical operations conducted by successively in each of the Qatari capital Doha, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the silence imposed by the disease and doctors it, and blow Yarmouk, and military operations escalating in the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and exit zones ability of those states The fall in the hands of warriors «People's Army in the north, as well as increased Coker war 'forgotten' in Darfur, are all factors that observers confirm that the regime of President al-Bashir reached the stage of 'no return' .. If added to the economic collapse horrible caused by the exit Petroleum southern Sudan from the budget provision in Khartoum, and the failure of Khartoum and Juba - until the moment - to agree on pumping oil in the oil pipelines North and failing to calm border disputes, especially the conflict zone «Abyei» , and the possibility of a third war in which, the statement that the crisis regime of President Bashir became «structural» is not a word lump, especially if read it with UN Security Council Resolution (2046) to impose a settlement between the north and south disputed issues, and if the intransigence of one of the parties the international organization to take responsibility «under Chapter VII of the Charter, and is likely to receive international Khartoum weight of the stick on her back.
Thus be governance crisis has come home to roost, or so reported the Secretary's political opposition Popular Congress Party, Kamal Omar trying to explain Malate and conflicts of power and governance in Sudan, where he says «talk about moderation president's health just talk political, because his health is deteriorating, and therefore can not manage stage coming as he did in the past.
Omar believes that there is a 'three work streams within the ruling party, and the dispute over the succession Bashir, a the المستقطبين Movement, and they entered the party after he seized power, and a second stream led by first deputy Ali Osman. Omar adds that this trend took advantage of the absence of the President hospitals to enhance its influence.
However, the Islamic researcher and journalist Abdul Ghani Ahmad Idris, author of the book «Islamists .. Vision and leadership crisis, ruled in Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat that Osman has managed to bring the relationship between him and the military commanders, in the brief period Gabha President of the country for treatment. The «may Ali Osman relationship old Forty years with the military, but affected the signing of the Naivasha Agreement, which holds the Sudanese army claimed responsibility and the responsibility of secession of the south, so the relationship between men and army unpaved enough to return in such few days».
This was confirmed by commanders without equivocation, but quoted by armed forces army spokeswoman earlier when he wrote editor-in-chief for the role of «Naivasha and they made the secession of the south and weaken the army, which reveals the spacing between the military and Taha.
Explains Omar that the current third represented the military who belongs to them Bashir, however, indicates that the stream Ali Osman accepted within the military, and is likely to devolve things to him because of this acceptance, as he says it «Idris» It stream متحلق about President component of «Minister Defense Major General Abdel Rahim Mohamed Hussein, and Electricity Minister Osama Abdullah, and others, and they are no real alternative, they offer to the President, and even believe that their continued survival is not only linked.
According to Omar, the president Bashir himself looking for «Khalifa» saves him a secure future and a guarantee of prosecutions Criminal Court, but he does not see on the horizon that would be acceptable and able to manage the situation in the country, including more shares «Taha», underlines the weakness stream military entourage President Idris said.
He Idris he sees in the view of the polar-Mahdi in his testimony told «Middle East» later, that changing the president calls change every cab leadership have ruled, including First Deputy Ali Osman Mohamed Taha, it represents viewpoint insight might return to the movement Islamic luster lost. Abdul Ghani adds Idris «I expect the emergence of new Islamic leaders, return of the Islamic Movement lost Mvcodadtha due to political and military failure, which required the ruling group, and surprise the conflicting inheriting including President did not expect.
According to Islamic leadership refused to reveal his name, the new Islamic leaders will emerge from the current crisis, and he mentioned the names may be unknown, such as the payment of Allah Hussein, Osama Aidroos, and some of their colleagues.
With all of these analyzes and predictions, remains finally to conflict presidency in Sudan began, and scenarios ranging from internal change in the system, and a popular uprising restore democracy to the country, and «solution broker» negotiated, while overlooking the specter of «state collapse» though on the face of shy and cryptic. . The days will reveal «Conference now underway trajectory of events, though analysts do not rely too much, also reveal how true or false health reports traded on the president.
Middle East
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